Peak oil

"Life without oil, in fact, would be so different that it is frightening to contemplate. We are addicted, and it is no comfortable addiction. Like other drugs, oil comes with a baggage of greed, crime and filth. Worse, it is smothering the planet."  ― James Buchan

Petroleum is a non-renewable resource. The question we need to ask is just how much is left?  A 2013 OPEC report estimated that there are 1.5 trillion barrels of oil in proven reserves in the world.  At the rate the world consumes oil, this will be gone in only 44 years.  In 2014, BP released a report putting the figure at 1.7 trillion barrels, claiming that this will last 53 years.  New oil is continually being discovered, though—oil companies have an incentive to find these new resources.  How long we can keep discovering new oil, however, isn't clear.

Source data via OPEC.

Understanding this chart is difficult—not what it says, but why it says it.  This requires a more detailed study of the history of oil production and the technologies that have driven discovery.  In the past, intermittent bursts of discovery seem to have been the norm.  This appears to have changed in the 1990s, with a lull that has lasted until the present—I am most interested in finding out why.  However, the size of the earth is finite.  The oil we have already found is low hanging fruit—the remaining oil will be difficult to find.  In addition to slowing rates of discovery, the oil industry will also face increased competition from alternative energy and—one may hope—increased pressure from the public for environmental responsibility.  It is likely that the end of oil will not come from dwindling supplies, but from these other causes.