"Averroës, Kant, Socrates, Newton, Voltaire, could any of them have believed it possible that in the twentieth century the scourge of cities, the poisoner of lungs, the mass murderer and idol of millions would be a metal receptacle on wheels, and that people would actually prefer being crushed to death inside it during frantic weekend exoduses instead of staying, safe and sound, at home?" ― Stanisław Lem, The Futurological Congress
Though it's still early, I haven't made any real predictions—today seems like a good day to start. By the year 2025, few people will own cars. I'll go further, and estimate that there will be only one vehicle for every five people in the United States. This hinges upon the adoption of autonomous vehicles.
Consider transportation in Europe. Per capita, the United States consumes 2.5 times as much petroleum as Europe—most likely because there are more than twice as many vehicles per capita. I've heard anecdotes that Europe, indeed, has much better public transportation than even the best U.S. cities. European policy makers have tended to favor mass transit and improving walkability over other forms of transportation. If metropolitan bus fleets in the United States can be automated, they could be operated more cheaply—or expanded to offer more continuous service or more routes. With increasing petroleum prices, policies will have to favor more efficient use of fuel.
However, let's say you want access to a private vehicle—it may not be necessary to own one, outright. With cars able to drive themselves, one vehicle could easily serve many people in a day. There are already car sharing companies that could easily expand their business with fleets of driverless cars. Improved fuel efficiency may also extend the time that oil will remain cheaply available—at least, it could smooth the transition to a post-petroleum economy.
Can confirm, European transit is much MUCH better than US. My coworkers have to go to Poland every now and then. If you want to travel the city, use the bus. It's quicker, easier and more cost effective for the short term. They also benefit from close cities. Tychy is rather close to many tourist areas (recreational, historical, etc). They keep their transit system clean and up to date, which is a far cry from the transit I've experienced here.
ReplyDeleteDustin,
ReplyDeleteI agree that one of the main benefits of autonomous vehicles will be the car-for-hire industry, where people will order a car using an app 5 minutes before they need it, it will come, take them where they want to go, and go on to the next job. This will greatly reduce car ownership rates. However, I think there's no way we see this by 2025. Governments are unlikely to approve autonomous vehicles without human drivers by then. We may need to see 2 decades of widespread autonomous vehicle technology with human drivers before driverless cars are approved. And having to go places with a stranger in the car will greatly reduce the attractiveness of that industry. It ends up being little more than a very responsive taxi service. People like to have their privacy. The second issue is that some people will always want to have their own cars, if for no other reason than to have your own rolling closet in which to store stuff. So I think you are way premature in predicting the death of private car ownership. I doubt this will happen in my lifetime, if ever.